Solar Update Report January 30, 2025

The sun has been moderately active this past week. The greater than 2 MeV (solar particle event) electron flux at geostationary orbit is expected to remain mostly at normal to moderate levels January 30 - 31. A coronal hole high-speed stream is expected to arrive February 1. Particle injection during this time will likely elevate the 2 MeV electron flux to high levels.

Solar wind speeds have been at nominal levels and are expected to continue into January 30. There remains a slight chance for enhancement due to a weak coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a Type II radio sweep off the west limb around January 28. Confidence in the arrival of this CME is low as modeling suggests arrival late January 31.

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions on January 31, due to possible influence from the CME. The most notable effects will be from the high-speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole that is expected to become fully geoeffective on February 1.

The 10.7 -centimeter radio flux and geomagnetic indices: January 30 – 31, 150; February 1, 145, and 150 on February 2.

EarthSky.org reports a large coronal hole which has been under observation since this past Tuesday is now facing Earth. The fast solar wind it produces is expected to arrive late January 31 to early February 1. This could cause disturbances in Earth’s geomagnetic field from unsettled (Kp=3) to active levels (Kp=4) with a chance for G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) levels. Solar activity is at low levels with only C-class flares but a cluster of regions AR3977, AR3976, and AR3978, are emerging onto the visible solar disk and showing signs of magnetic complexity.