SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP012
ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP12
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 12  ARLP012
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  March 24, 2017
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP012
ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA

The sun just finished an extended period (16 days) of zero sunspots.
 
There were none on March 4, one visible on March 5, then none on
March 6 to 20.
 
Finally one sunspot group appeared on March 21 to 23, with a sunspot
number of 12 on all three days.
 
A sunspot number of 12 does not mean there were 12 sunspots.  Every
group of sunspots counts as 10 points, and every sunspot within
those groups counts for one point.  Therefore, the minimum non-zero
sunspot number is 11.  So for the past three days there were two
sunspots in one group.
 
The average daily sunspot number this week (March 16 to 22) was 3.4,
compared to zero during the previous seven days.  Average daily
solar flux increased from 70.3 to 71.2.
 
Average daily planetary A index increased from 8.1 to 10 and average
mid-latitude A index increased from 6.4 to 7.1.
 
The mid-latitude A index is measured at one magnetometer at Wallops
Island, Virginia while the planetary A index is calculated based on
a number of magnetic observatories, most in the northern hemisphere.
 
Predicted solar flux is 75 on March 24 to 26, 78 on March 27 to 30,
72 on March 31 to April 4, 71 on April 5, 70 on April 6 to 17, 71 on
April 18, 72 on April 19 to May 1 and 71 again on May 2.
 
Predicted planetary A index is 14 on March 24, 8 on March 25 and 26,
then 20, 40, 35, 20 and 18 on March 27 to 31, then 15, 20 and 15 on
April 1 to 3, 12 on April 4 and 5, 10 on April 6, 5 on April 7 to
16, then 8, 12, 20, 8, 5 and 8 on April 17 to 22 then 8, 35, 30, 20,
18, 15, 20 and 15 on April 23 to 30, and 12 on May 1 and 2.
 
The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic
disturbance warning at 2336 UTC on March 23:
 
"Due to the continued effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole, solar wind speed is still high.  IF
Bz shows sufficiently southward values for long enough intervals of
time, there is some possibility for some minor storm periods to
occur on 24 March."
 
From F. K. Janda, OK1HH, geomagnetic activity forecast for the
period March 24 to April 19, 2017
 
Geomagnetic field will be:  
Quiet on March 25, April 8 and 9, 14 and 15 
Mostly quiet on April 13, 19 
Quiet to unsettled March 26 to 28, April 10, 12, 18 
Quiet to active on March 24, 31, April 1 to 4, 6, 11, 17 
Active to disturbed on March 29 and 30, April 5, 7, 16 
 
Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on
March 24, 30 and 31, April 1 to 4, (5 to 8,) 12 and 13.  (14,) 16 to
20.  Dates in parenthesis are less likely to have enhanced solar
wind.
 
This weekend is the CQ Worldwide WPX SSB Contest.  The CW portion is
on May 27 and 28.  See http://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm for details.
 
One cool aspect of this contest is that unique prefixes count for
multipliers.  So instead of counting states worked or countries
worked and using those totals to multiply your final score, you
total up the number of unique prefixes worked.
 
Right now as K7RA, I am not in much demand for this contest, because
the K7 prefix is quite common.  But starting in the 1980s I was
KT7H, and this made my call sought after as a desirable multiplier,
depending on how many other stations in the contest had a call sign
starting with KT7.
 
WaPo comments on the naked sun.  Note there is a comment at the
bottom from N3JLY.
 
http://wapo.st/2nKw6nd
 
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
 
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
 
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
 
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
 
Sunspot numbers for March 16 through 22, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
12, and 12, with a mean of 3.4.  10.7 cm flux was 70.5, 70.5, 70.2,
71.2, 72.7, 71, and 72.5, with a mean of 71.2.  Estimated planetary
A indices were 6, 4, 2, 2, 3, 26, and 27, with a mean of 10.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 1, 2, 2, 18, and 19,
with a mean of 7.1.
NNNN
/EX