SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 29, 2018
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

Conditions were good for Field Day weekend, with no major
geomagnetic disruptions, while solar flux and sunspot numbers were
relatively high for this part of the solar cycle. On Friday,
Saturday and Sunday the sunspot numbers were 41, 34 and 16 while
solar flux was 80.3, 77.1 and 74.5.

Planetary A index was 4, 16 and 7 on Friday through Sunday. On
Saturday the College A index in Alaska reached 24, so I imagine
Field Day stations in Alaska and Canada's northern latitudes
suffered a bit, although I've received no reports. College K index
was 4 at 0600 UTC, then 2 at 0900 UTC, then 5, 5 and 4 on 1200-1800
UTC.

But the middle-latitude A index (measured in Virginia) was 15 on
Saturday, and the K index reached four on only two periods, at 1200
UTC and again at the end of the UTC day 12 hours later. Otherwise
the mid-latitude K index varied from 2-3.

No sunspots are visible since Tuesday, June 26. Average daily
sunspot number was 22.6 this reporting week (June 21-27), down
slightly from the previous week's average of 25.7.

Average daily solar flux actually increased this reporting week from
74 to 75.3.

Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 9.9.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on June 29, 68 on June 30 through July 6,
72 on July 7-13, 75 on July 14-15, 77 on July 16, 80 on July 17-19,
77 on July 20-21, 75 on July 22, 72 on July 23-24, 70 on July 25-26,
68 on July 27 through August 2, 72 on August 3-9, 75 on August 10-11
and 77 on July 12.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on June 29 to July 2, 5 on June
3-14, 15 on July 15, 5 on July 16-19, 15 on July 20, 8 on July
21-22, then 10, 25, 18, 12 and 8 on July 23-27, 5 on July 28 through
August 10, 15 on August 11 and 5 on August 12.

Jon Jones, N0JK reported a 6 meter opening to Asia on Thursday, June
21:

"A major sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz between Japan, China, Korea to
North America June 21. Hundreds of contacts were made, most via FT8.

"I got off work at 4:30 pm CDT (2130z) and drove home to Lawrence
from Kansas City. I had seen some spots that a good opening to JA
was developing prior to leaving work. Stopped at the I-70 'Lawrence
rest stop' at 5 pm (2200z) between KC and Lawrence to 'check the
band.'

"This is what I decoded on 50.313 MHz FT8 with just a 1/4 wave mag
mount whip on the car in the parking lot:

"JA8XTG, JH8XVH, JP1LRT, JH7DFZ, JE1BMJ, JG3IFX/8, CM2XN JA1UAV Cuba
to Japan, JE1BMJ, and JA7QVI.

"I tried to work some of the JAs -- but the mobile setup was unable
to get through. Went home, got my portable set up with a 2 el Yagi
and back on the air at 2315z. I was able to work a number of JAs
including JA7QVI and JA9SJI. Got one decode of BH4IGO. The opening
got weaker after 2340z. JA stations worked Cuba, Cayman Island and
other islands in the Caribbean. Larry, N0LL said signals were strong
enough he worked a few JAs on CW."

On June 28 Mark Lunday, WD4ELG of Greensboro, North Carolina
reported:

"15 meters has been almost completely TEP for days and days on FT8.
Suddenly at 2200 UTC today, I start picking up 9K2HS (Kuwait)
calling CQ! Then I hear SP2HQP (Gdansk, Poland).
 
"I am working EU on 17 and 20 meters at the same time, but this is
the first time in a while that 15 has been open in the EU/SW Asia
direction in a while."

(TEP is trans-equatorial propagation, meaning signals seem to be
propagating only over a north-south path, across the equator).

Last week on June 22, Bob German, KG6PJG of Big Bear Lake,
California reported:

"I maintain an APRS VHF I-gate from my home in Big Bear Lake,
California, located at an elevation of approximately 7,260 feet.
Most packets received are from a fairly localized area with a few
from more distant locations. However on 6/19/18 from 1646:17 to
1837:14 Zulu I received some very surprising packets. I believe this
was likely due to unusual atmospheric conditions that were
reflecting 2M, and likely 6M, signals much further than normal.
These packets were sent from Arkansas, Kansas, and Oklahoma with the
most distant being 2,168.3 km. The sending locations can be viewed
at:

"http://aprs.link/app/aprs/stations/digiusermap-KG6PJG-10

"My station consists of a Kenwood TMV71A using a Diamond X300A
antenna. APRS software are Direwolf and APRSIS32.

"I would guess that other amateur services probably experienced
these conditions and I thought it might of some value to pass along.
I have no experience with DXing but hope to engage in this activity
in the future."

Looks like Bob observed some nice VHF sporadic-E propagation.

Jeff, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia reported last Sunday,
June 24:

"It would seem that magical things would happen with such a drastic
increase in SFI with low K index, but at times, especially around
1200-1300Z on 20M things have seemed pretty unchanged from SFI in
high 60s. I did work some EU and AS Russians, Finland, Israel, and
UN6P Kazakhstan around 0200-0300Z on 20 CW June 22. The next night
was not nearly as good. Then there was the opposite of all week
long, almost no Es on any band during FD on Saturday (15/10M dead at
2300Z) followed by tremendous Es on Sunday! More to follow.

"I did notice some improvement on 17M around 1300Z (signals still
quite weak vs. nil) and some late EU on 17M (could have been Es in
PM).

"The JAs have been loud but very few in number on 20 around 1200Z
and probably earlier."

In the Letters section of the July 2018 issue of QST, Bob Kozlarek,
WA2SQQ of Elmwood Park, New Jersey points out that "85% of my best
160-meter activity took place during the low part of the last solar
cycle. While 10, 15 and 20 meters were quiet, I was very active on
160, 75 and 40 meters. It's time to retune and start thinking about
making the best of these situations. Days without sunspots can be a
great time to explore new or seldom used bands or modes, such as 2
meters SSB and digital mobile radio."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for June 21 to 27, 2018 were 41, 41, 34, 16, 14, 12,
and 0, with a mean of 22.6. 10.7 cm flux was 81.5, 80.3, 77.1, 74.5,
72.8, 71.1, and 70, with a mean of 75.3. Estimated planetary A
indices were 3, 4, 16, 7, 12, 20, and 7, with a mean of 9.9.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 4, 15, 8, 10, 17, and 7,
with a mean of 9.3.
NNNN
/EX