SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7VVV
ZCZC AP45
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 5, 1999
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7VVV
Average solar flux was down, and sunspot numbers were up this past
week. This is because solar flux peaked at 197.3 on October 27, and
the high sunspot values were on October 26, 28 and 29, when they
were 200, 214 and 217. Since the reporting week for this bulletin
began on October 28, this made some funny averages.
At least over the past week geomagnetic disturbances had died down.
Planetary K indices over the past few days have often been 1 or 2,
and even 0 on November 3.
Solar flux should rise over the next few days, with the Friday
through Sunday values at 150, 155 and 165. Planetary A indices for
those days are predicted to be 7, 7 and 15, and the mid-latitude, or
Fredericksburg A indices are predicted to be 5, 10 and 15. So for
the ARRL CW Sweepstakes this weekend conditions could start to get a
little rough on Sunday. Geomagnetic indices may remain high through
the week, and solar flux may peak on the following weekend around
190 or 200. Another peak in solar flux may return around November
23 or 24.
Sunspot numbers for October 28 through November 3 were 196, 214,
217, 194, 178, 124 and 117 with a mean of 177.1. 10.7 cm flux was
183.9, 179.6, 169.4, 160.4, 150.6, 142.8 and 143.1, with a mean of
161.4, and estimated planetary A indices were 16, 10, 7, 10, 10, 6
and 5, with a mean of 9.1.
Path projections are for this weekend's ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest.
From the Pacific Northwest to Southern California, 80 meters open
all hours, best 0130-0330z, weakest 1930-2000z, 40 meters best
0130-1430z, weakest 1930-2000z, 20 meters 1530-0230z, 15 meters
1700-2330z, 10 meters possibly open 1900-2300z. To Hawaii, 80 meters
0300-1530z, 40 meters 0130-1730z, 20 meters 1600-0430z, 15 meters
1730-0130z, 10 meters 1830-0000z. To Alaska, 80 meters 2300-1800z
(best 0330-1400z), 40 meters open all hours, best 0300-1430z, 20
meters 1630-0400z, 15 meters 1800-0100z, 10 meters 2000-2230z. To
VE8, 80 meters open all hours, best 0130-0230z, weakest 1800-2130z,
40 meters open all hours, best 2330-1600z, weakest 1830-2100z, 20
meters 1630-0130z, 15 meters 1830-2230z, 10 meters possibly
1800-2300z. To Northeast states, 80 meters 2300-1230z, 40 meters
open all hours, best 0130-1100z, weakest 1600-2000z, 20 meters
1500-0000z, 15 meters 1700-2100z, 10 meters possibly 1800-2030z.
To Southeast states, 80 meters 2300-1330z, 40 meters open all hours,
best 0130-1130z, weakest 1730-1930z, 20 meters 1300-0400z, 15 meters
1430-0100z, 10 meters 1530-2300z. To the central states, 80 meters
2300-1500z, 40 meters open all hours, best 0130-1230z, weakest
1730-2030z, 20 meters 1430-0230z, 15 meters 1600-2330z, 10 meters
1830-2100z.
From Hawaii to Southern California, 80 meters 0300-1500z, 40 meters
0130-1630z, 20 meters 1600-0700z, 15 meters 1730-0230z, 10 meters
1830-0030z. To Alaska, 80 meters 0330-1630z, 40 meters 0230-1800z,
20 meters 1730-0530z, 15 meters 1900-0230z, 10 meters 2100-0030z. To
VE8, 80 meters 0330-1530z, 40 meters 0200-1700z, 20 meters
1600-0430z, 15 meters 1730-0130z, 10 meters 1900-2330z. To
Northeast states, 80 meters 0300-1230z, 40 meters 0230-1300z, 20
meters around 1300z, around 1630z and 2300-0130z 15 meters 1700-2300
z, 10 meters 1800-2100z. To Southeast states, 80 meters 0300-
1330z, 40 meters 0200-1430z, 20 meters 2330-1330z, 15 meters
1600-0200z, 10 meters 1700-0000z. To the Central states, 80 meters
0330-1400z, 40 meters 0200-1500z, 20 meters open all hours, best
0400-1100z, weakest 1900-2200z, 15 meters 1630-0200z, 10 meters
1730-0000z.
From Alaska to Southern California, 80 meters 0100-1500z, 40 meters
2200-1800z, 20 meters 1730-0330z, 15 meters 1930-0030z. To VE8, 80
meters open all hours, strongest 0130-0300z and 1430-1500z, weakest
1900-2200z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 2300-0100z and
1600-1700z, 20 meters 1800-0200z. To Northeast states, 80 meters
2300-1300z, 40 meters 2100-1430z, 20 meters 1500-0100z, 15 meters
1800-2130z. To Southeast states, 80 meters 2330-1300z, 40 meters
2230-1430z, 20 meters 1500-1600z and 1730-0200z, 15 meters
1730-2330z, 10 meters 2000-2130z. To the Central states, 80 meters
0000-1430z, 40 meters 2100-1600z, 20 meters 1700-0200z, 15 meters
1900-2300z.
From VE8 to Northeast states, 80 meters 2130-1330z, 40 meters open
all hours, strongest 0000-1130z, 20 meters 1600-0130z, 15 meters
1500-2230z, 10 meters 1630-2030z. To Southeast states, 80 meters
2230-1300z, 40 meters 1930-1500z, 20 meters 1530-0030z, 15 meters
1730-2130z. To central states, 80 meters 2230-1500z, 40 meters open
all hours, best 0030-1230z, 20 meters 1430-0200z, 15 meters
1530-2330z, 10 meters 1700-2130z. To Southern California, 80 meters
0000-1500z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 0200-1330z, 20
meters 1430-0330z, 15 meters 1600-0130z, 10 meters 1730-2330z.
From Northeast states to Southeast states, 80 meters open all hours,
best 2300-0030z, 40 meters open all hours, best 2330-1100z, 20
meters 1400-2130z. To central states, 80 meters 2130-1330z, 40
meters 0000-1100z, 20 meters 1330-0330z, 15 meters 1500-2130z, 10
meters 1730-1900z. To Southern California, 80 meters 2300-1230z, 40
meters 2200-1500z, 20 meters 1400-0030z, 15 meters 1530-2130z.
From Southeast states to central states, 80 meters 2000-1530z, 40
meters open all hours, strongest 2330-1230z, 20 meters 1400-0000z,
15 meters 1600-2100z. To Southern California, 80 meters 2300-1330z,
40 meters open all hours, best 0130-1200z, weakest 1730-1930, 20
meters open all hours, strongest 0030-0530z, 15 meters 1400-0130z,
10 meters 1500-2330z.
From Central states to Southern California, 80 meters 2130-1630z, 40
meters open all hours, strongest 0100z, 20 meters 1430-0230z, 15
meters 1530-2330z, 10 meters 1730-2100z.
NNNN
/EX
